That was the stark forecast spelled out by officials from Caledonian MacBrayne at a meeting in Rothesay this week as the company, along with Bute Community Council and Bute Ferry Users Group, tried to map out the future of travel to and fron the island.

Wednesday night's meeting was the first in a series looking in more detail at the main issues raised in the community council's ferry survey, carried out last summer, the detailed results of which were revealed in March.

That survey revealed that the cost of travel was one of the top three priorities for almost every type of ferry user, with one in ten respondents stating that the basic cost for both passengers and cars was too high and needed to be reduced.

But Alasdair Henderson, CalMac's commercial manager, told the meeting that the setting of the company's fares was done almost entirely at the behest of the Scottish Government - and that there was almost no room for experimenting with cash from the public purse.

'Very little control'

"The traditional days of government reimbursing us for whatever we lost have long since passed away," Mr Henderson said.

"The terms of the public service contract under which we operate sets out fares levels - almost all of which are determined by the Scottish Government.

"We have very little control over large elements of the fares. We can suggest amendments to the Scottish Government, but they will always come back and ask us whether those amendments are going to generate more revenue, or, at worst, be revenue neutral."

Asked by Bute Ferry Users Group chairman George Docherty whether Scottish minsters - CalMac's only shareholder - would consider a gamble on something which might bring in more revenue, Mr Henderson said: "They will not take a gamble. We would have to present a compelling argument that any such move would, at worst, be revenue neutral."

Mr Docherty asked whether CalMac themselves would consider taking the risk.

"Only if we were absolutely convinced that there was a gain to be made," Mr Henderson replied. "It would have to be a very, very convincing argument."

Modest reduction

Mr Henderson pointed to the trial of fares based on road equivalent tariff (RET), currently taking place in the Western Isles, as an example of the direct intervention of the Scottish Government.

He also pointed out that the RET trial was due to run until 2011, shortly before the next elections to the Scottish Parliament, with the results to be announced thereafter - but that the Scottish Government would have to indicate the level of fares for 2011 almost a year before the trial ends.

"If RET was put into operation here I think there would be a modest reduction in fares on the Wemyss Bay route," Mr Henderson said.

"RET sets fares based on the length of the journey and very little else, but also includes a fixed element which penalises short journeys.

"The transport minister, Stewart Stevenson, has said that no-one will pay any more under RET. Otherwise I think RET would have a very interesting effect on fares between Colintraive and Rhubodach."

Mr Henderson admitted that CalMac did have some leeway over the validity of tickets - a point which prompted George Docherty to ask the reasoning behind the existence of a five-day return ticket rather than a seven-day or eight-day version.

"The five day saver return was introduced for historical reasons as the equivalent of a day return for islands where it was impossible to leave and get back in a day," Mr Henderson said.

"If it was changed, it would equal a loss in revenue. If I extended the validity of the five day return I would simply be giving money away, and I can't see any means of getting it back."

That same risk of lost revenue was also cited as the reason why multi-journey tickets were not transferable.

Mr Henderson did, however, say it was likely that the ten-journey books of tickets available for the Rothesay-Wemyss Bay route would have their validity extended from six to 12 months from the start of the 2009-10 winter timetable.

Ticketing 'mystery'

The range of tickets available to Bute's ferry users was also discussed, with BCC member Rosemary Laxton suggesting there was "mystery" surrounding which tickets were available when and to whom.

Brian Fulton, CalMac's regional manager for the upper Clyde, said there were so many fares available that it would be impossible to list them all in a single timetable.

"When you are buying a return ticket," he said, "we will ask you when you are coming back, and we will always give you the cheapest fare."

Mr Fulton spoke of a discounted day return fare available from Wemyss Bay to elderly and disabled passengers (those based on Bute already travel free), but said this fare was being phased out and would probably have disappeared altogether by the time RET is expected to arrive on the Clyde.

He also warned that cheaper travel might not always benefit Bute, and pointed out that the island might not automatically see the benefit from discounted fares.

"The level of discount becomes irrelevant if there is no reason for people to come here," Mr Fulton continued.

"If people take advantage of a discount and come here on a Sunday, only to discover that Rothesay is shut - as people have said to me - they're not going to come back, and they're not going to encourage others to visit."

And Mr Henderson sounded a similar note of caution when he pointed out: "Remember that lowering fares sounds like a great aspiration, but it has a negative impact on island communities too, because it makes it easier for people to go to the mainland to do their shopping at Tesco or wherever.

"It's not all as simple as it might look."